Achmad Fitro, Hafid Kholidi Hadi, Achmad Kautsar, Riska Dhenabayu, D.S. Muhammad Febrilian, Otong Saeful Bachri
The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified concerns regarding the sustainability of post-pandemic banking recovery. This study develops a forward-looking framework to assess bank financial sustainability under conservative and data-constrained conditions by integrating a composite Sustainability Index with Grey Verhulst forecasting, a method suitable for small-sample and uncertainty-dominated environments. Financial sustainability is defined as a multidimensional and trajectory-based condition requiring both short-term profitability and structural resilience. Using annual data from Indonesian listed banks over the 2014-2022 period, the framework generates sustainability projections for 2023-2025. The Sustainability Index combines normalized profitability (ROA), capital adequacy (CAR), and credit risk (NPL), while forecasting performance is evaluated against a linear benchmark using RMSE, MAPE, and a one-step pseudo out-of-sample validation. The results show that post-pandemic recovery remains fragile under a conservative combined criterion. Among banks with complete forecast availability, none satisfy the requirement of consistently positive profitability and structural sustainability across the forecast horizon. This finding does not imply imminent distress, but highlights the absence of fully consolidated sustainability under strict multidimensional assessment. The proposed framework provides a transparent early warning tool for post-pandemic banking supervision and policy evaluation. © 2026 IEEE.
Digital Business (of Aff.), State University of Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia; Digital Business (of Aff.), Muhadi Setiabudi of Universisty (of Aff.), Brebes, Indonesia
