Hybrid Model for the Next Hourly Electricity Load Demand Forecasting Based on Clustering and Weather Data

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Unit Three Kartini, Deddy Putra Ardyansyah, Eppy Yundra

2020 Proceeding - 2020 3rd International Conference on Vocational Education and Electrical Engineering: Strengthening the framework of Society 5.0 through Innovations in Education, Electrical, Engineering and Informatics Engineering, ICVEE 2020 Conference paper Cited by 5 Quartile

Abstract

This research presents about short term load demand customer-prediction model for the supply system based on clustering used to secure the electricity load an industrial customer. The customer-based load hybrid using Part Swarm Optimization Backpropagation prediction method is built on forecasting generation capacity and demands in the next 1 hours ahead. To sustain the forecast model results, the daily clustering and weather forecasts supplied by local authorities, are incorporated inour hybrid model. The model's simulation was tested by calculating the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) value 0.01% for the electricity load demand forecasted data business rate and 0.005% for theindustry rates. © 2020 IEEE.

Affiliations

Universitas Negeri Surabaya, Dept. Electrical Engineering, Surabaya, Indonesia