Georgina Maria Tinungki, Powell Gian Hartono, Nurhafifah Amalina, Dewie Tri Wijayati Wardoyo, Reniati Karnasi, Gatri Lunarindiah, Marieta Ariani, Lidia Wahyuni
This study investigates the strategic adaptation of dividend policy in Indonesian state-owned enterprises across the pre-crisis, crisis, and recovery phases. Adaptation is operationally defined as firm-level, measurable changes in cash dividend indicators during the crisis and post-crisis phases relative to the pre-crisis average. Empirically, dividend behavior is estimated using a dynamic panel framework with system GMM, and an event-study approach evaluates abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns around dividend announcement dates in each phase. The results indicate that SOEs increased dividends during the crisis relative to pre-and post-crisis periods, and that the market exhibited stronger positive reactions in the crisis and recovery phases than in the pre-crisis phase. These patterns suggest adaptive choices consistent with managing uncertainty and reinforcing policy credibility within Indonesia’s state-ownership setting. The findings highlight the strategic role of dividend signals in shaping investor perceptions during economic shocks, while theoretically challenging the core cash-conservation premise of the pecking order and reinforcing the relevance of signaling theory for state-controlled firms with complex fiscal and political mandates. © 2026 by the authors.
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, 90245, Indonesia; Department of Management, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Ciputra Makassar, Makassar, 90224, Indonesia; Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya, 60231, Indonesia; Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trisakti, West Jakarta, 11440, Indonesia; Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Trisakti, West Jakarta, 11440, Indonesia
