Renny Sari Dewi, Riyanarto Sarno, Endang Siti Astuti
Accurate software effort estimation is a persistent challenge in project management, as a significant share of project failures is attributed to inadequate prior risk consideration. Among the widely adopted methodologies that are used for early estimation of the success of a project is the Use Case Points (UCP) method, yet its framework does not take into consideration risk factors, undermining its reliability. To improve upon this limitation, this study introduces UCPRisk, a rule-based expert-guided UCP model that explicitly integrates risk factors across six dimensions: requirements, planning and control, project complexity, user involvement, team dynamics, and organizational environment. The model was evaluated through three public service application case studies, producing effort estimates of 1,564.42 man-hours (agriculture application), 7,287.91 man-hours (company registration), and 4,669.17 man-hours (industrial permit registration). Compared to traditional UCP, UCPRisk reduced the average Relative Error (RE) to 24.3%, demonstrating improved alignment with actual project outcomes. While not a definitive cost calculation tool, UCPRisk provides a structured framework that embeds risk into early estimation, offering more realistic projections for software development. (c) by the authors
Department of Informatics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia; Department of Digital Business, Universitas Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia; Department of Business Administration, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia
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